The W-shape recovery is gaining traction. By early next year, many unemployed Americans will run out of unemployment benefits. With domestic consumption declining, another round of fresh layoffs is not impossible.

Countries relying on exports to the US market could face demand cuts. The domino effect could be far reaching.

So, the million dollar question is “When’s the stock market going to dip?” If the stock market is 6 months forward looking, then the market should have dipped a couple of months back. But this hasn’t happened. Then,.. is it dipping now?

I have always thought that savings accounts give higher interest rates to current accounts. A check with my Maybank Kawanku savings account, HSBC basic savings account and JustOne current account revealed a couple of surprises.

Firstly, effective 14th May 2009, Maybank Kawanku has stopped paying interest for deposits below RM10,000. And the highest interest rates start from 0.15% up to 1.00%. See table below.

Secondly, my current account pays higher interest compared to both my savings accounts!

Maybank Kawanku interest rates

My HSBC basic savings account pays a flat interest rate of 0.25% for all amounts.

HSBC basic savings interest rate

My SCB JustOne current account interest rate starts from 0.88% !! And not only that, my deposits also earn Choice Points which can be used to exchange for gifts.

SCB current account interest rates

My current account also earn Choice Points

From now on, I’m going to use my current account as my savings account.

We are in the midst of the Great Recession, the worst since 1929. This cause of this recession was due to banks making out loans to risky borrowers. These are known as subprime loans.

The FDIC has recommended a program for these banks to loan to people in the lower income group. Isn’t this akin to making out subprime loans? Isn’t this sowing the seeds of the next financial crisis?

I started buying unit trust with EPF money in June 2009. Yesterday was my second time withdrawing money from EPF to buy unit trust. According to the guidelines, a contributor can withdraw once every 3 months from EPF to invest into approved unit trust funds.

This time, I was recommended by the unit trust agent to buy the Public Islamic Equity Fund. The sales charge is 3%. According to the agent, this 3% is capped by EPF. I wonder if I could get a lower sales charge if I buy directly over the counter without going through the agency or agents.

It will be interesting to see if this managed fund can outperform my index fund (UOB-OSK KLCI Tracker).

My next withdrawal should be after the Chinese New Year, perhaps sometime around March 2010.

It baffles me. The US unemployment rate hits 10.2%, worse than the expected 9.9%. And guess what? The stock markets around the world rally for the second day in a row. What is going on? Has the investor gone mad?

The people have to realize that, more and more consumers are becoming jobless. Consumer spending will reduce. Corporate revenue will reduce. And so will earnings, unless these corporates initiate another round of layoff to save on administration expenses.

Can someone enlighten me as to why the stock markets are rallying in the face of this worse than expected unemployment news?