02
Self Destruction
First trading day of the year and I’ve already screwed up myself. Today the stock market rallied up 2%. This is the strongest rally I have seen since I started buying stock. I was caught up in the excitement and this led me to make several decisions I should not have made.
1. Stock A had announced a dividend last month and I had bought Stock A to get the dividend. Upon the ex-dividend date, price dropped. This is normal. But the price dropped by more than the dividend and I knew that the price will come back up to a normal level. I had waited 7 days since the ex-dividend date. However, the market rallied and I was seeing a lot of stocks moving up in price. All except Stock A. I wanted to be part of the rally too. Against my better judgment, I sold Stock A at the Year Low price. In doing so, the losses had eaten into the dividend I have.
2. After I sold Stock A, market was already up more than 1%. I did not dare to buy into stocks that have already risen between 5% to 10%. Instead, I looked for stocks that have not budged from yesterday’s closing price. I assumed that when the market rallies like this, then stocks across the board will move up as well. I found one I liked, Stock B, and I bought it straight away. Why did I like Stock B? Because based on fundamentals, this business has good profit margin and the dividend yield is high. However, this stock is not one of those that attract active trading. I watched the counter for 1 hour and the price didn’t budge. Trading volume was thin. I was even more desperate to profit from today’s rally because time was running out. I sold Stock B at a loss.
3. I scanned my watchlist and found a stock that has fallen from the day’s high. This stock, Stock C, had strong buying pressure in the morning trading session and had pushed the price up by 20% and has since fallen back to 10%. I assumed that the sudden interest in Stock C is due to the interest from Fund Managers. These Fund Managers have been missing since the last week of last year and I thought they had come back. More importantly, it seemed to me they were buying up this stock. I bought Stock C immediately. I was right, there was strong buying interest, but the price didn’t budge either because the selling pressure was even higher. The price couldn’t move up and again, I sold all my shares.
4. Until now, I have bought and sold 3 stocks, all at a loss. I was disappointed with myself. I cursed myself and blamed it on my bad luck and impatience. I watched the other stocks that have risen between 5% to 10% continue rising to between 10% to 30%. Maybe I should have bought these stocks in the first place since the momentum appears to be there. I bought Stock D, a oil and gas counter. But I bought it at the day’s high and at almost the end of the trading session.
I hope come Monday, the market will rally like today and I could off load Stock D to recover some of my losses.
The important lessons I have learned.
1. Never assume or think that I am ahead of the market. Nor should I assume or think that I know which stocks will rise and fall.
2. Never put all my money into one or two stocks. If I had extra money, I wouldn’t have needed to sell Stock A in the first place at a loss to participate in the market rally.
3. Buy the stock. Don’t look at the market or the price. Just switch off and wait for the dividend. The more attention I pay to the market, the more inclined I am to trade, and the more likely I will make foolish decisions.